Restaurant Cash Flow Forecasting: A Practical Guide
A restaurant can be profitable on paper and still run out of cash. Profit is what you earn; cash is what is actually in the bank when rent, wages, and suppliers are due. A cash flow forecast is how you make sure the two line up.
Cash flow is not profit
Your P&L can show a healthy month while your account is tight, because of timing:
- Customers pay you instantly while suppliers give you days or weeks to pay, which works in your favour.
- A big VAT bill or a quarterly rent payment can drain cash in a single week.
- Delivery platforms pay on a lag, so sales and cash arrive at different times.
Build a simple 13-week forecast
You do not need a complex model. A rolling 13-week view is the standard:
- Start with the bank balance today.
- Add expected cash in by week: sales by channel, allowing for platform payout lags.
- Subtract cash out by week: wages, suppliers, rent, VAT, PAYE, loan repayments.
- Carry the balance forward so each week's closing balance opens the next.
The moment a week goes negative, you have found a cash gap with enough notice to act.
Close cash gaps before they happen
- Plan large payments (VAT, rent) around your strongest weeks.
- Negotiate supplier terms to match your payout timing.
- Use quiet-season forecasts to build a buffer in the busy season.
- Watch your break-even point so you know the sales floor each week.
Forecasting without spreadsheets
Maintaining this by hand is slow and goes stale fast. Alpa pulls your bank, POS, and supplier data together and keeps a live cash flow view and forecast, so you can see a cash gap coming instead of discovering it on payday.